Daily Briefing

Oil Spikes on Iran, Home Depot Beats: Market Briefing for August 18, 2026

~5 min readAlertsify Team

Oil Spikes on Iran, Home Depot Beats: Market Briefing for August 18, 2026

Futures point lower into the open after President Trump rejected extending the 60-day Iran ceasefire, sending Brent above $91 and WTI toward $84-85 while reviving inflation worries just as the 10-year Treasury yield pushes back toward its recent 19-month high near 4.75%. Home Depot beat on both lines and reaffirmed guidance before the bell, but the real test is Wednesday's FOMC minutes after three officials dissented in favor of a hike at the last meeting. Expect a cautious, headline-driven session with energy bid and growth names under the most pressure.

Index snapshot (prior close)

S&P 5007,747.00 (-0.50%)
Nasdaq Composite26,647.00 (-0.31%)
Dow Jones Industrial Average53,460.00 (-0.51%)
Russell 20003,052.77 (-0.51%)

Market setup

S&P 500 futures-0.5%
Nasdaq 100 futures-1.0%
Dow futuresflat (-0.1%)
Russell 2000 futures3,056.70 (-0.3%)
10-year Treasury yield4.73%
WTI crude$83.91 (Brent >$91)
Bitcoin$64,200 (+1.0%)
Gold$4,453 (+0.4%)

Key levels (dealer gamma)

SPY (spot ~773)Call wall 780 (then 800) · Put wall 700 (then 730)
QQQ (spot ~730)Call wall 735 (then 740) · Put wall 700 (then 720)

Call walls mark strikes where dealer hedging may slow rallies; put walls mark strikes where hedging may cushion dips. These are positioning estimates, not guarantees.

Five things that matter today

  1. Iran ceasefire lapses, oil jumps. Brent topped $91 and WTI pushed toward $84-85 on renewed Strait of Hormuz supply risk.
  2. Futures slide broadly. S&P 500 futures are down about 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures about 1.0%.
  3. 10-year yield near cycle highs. The 10-year sits at 4.73%, near last week's roughly 19-month high.
  4. Home Depot beats, reaffirms guidance. Adjusted EPS $4.92 vs ~$4.71-4.73 est on $47.9B revenue, comps +1.7% (best since late 2022).
  5. FOMC minutes loom Wednesday. Markets price roughly 67% odds of a September hold, up from under 50% a month ago.

Notable options flow

DRAM $57C 1/15 — sweep buyer piling into memory-chip ETF calls$2.45M ask-side
SPCX $145C 8/28 — SpaceX calls bought into IPO chatter$296.7K ask-side
ADBE $380C 12/17 — 2027 LEAP call buyer$321.7K ask-side
ORCL $165C 8/21 — cloud/AI infra call sweep$269.1K ask-side
SPXW $7900C 8/20 — index upside bet into month-end$275.5K ask-side
SPY $777P 8/21 — ask-side downside hedge$194.6K ask-side

What to Watch

Home Depot's beat sets the tone for Lowe's, which reports Wednesday, and for the broader renovation trade; watch comparable-sales trends across the retail cohort this week including Target and TJX. Oil and yields are the tape's real swing factors today — a further leg up in either could pressure the AI-momentum trade in Sandisk, Micron and other memory names that have led August's rally. Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the week's single biggest catalyst given the three dissents at the last meeting; positioning into that release should stay conservative.

Sign-off

That's the setup heading into the bell. Stay nimble, watch the gamma levels above for intraday pivots, and check back tomorrow for the next briefing.

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Alertsify provides execution infrastructure — it is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

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